Weekly Market Report – 03 May 2026

Both markets remain trapped between two opposing forces with, on the one hand, the prospects of oversupply exerting downward pressure on prices and on the other fears over short term shortages exacerbated by the war in the Middle East, tempering that downward slide. Nevertheless, over the week arabica coffee prices lost 8.00 cents/lb, with the second position (July) closing at 286.90 cents/lb. Robusta coffee prices followed suit, losing $119/ton (4.9 cents/lb) to finish the week at $3,364/ton (July). In the absence of local market distortions, roadside parchment coffee prices in Papua New Guinea next week will probably be between 75 and 80 toea/kg lower than they were last week.

Another major factor that has probably been taken into account this week has been the growing strength of the US dollar, probably reflecting the fact that the dollar is always seen as a safe haven during times of heightened international instability. A stronger dollar however, lower the price of coffee in local currency terms discouraging growers from selling. The USDA continue to release individual country forecasts ahead of their bi-annual coffee report which will be published in late June. The USDA attaché in Honduras reported this week that Honduras’s coffee production for 2025/26 is forecast at 5.53 million bags, up just over 6% from the 5.20 million bags produced last year. This is put down to an expansion in the planted area as well as improved plant nutrition, enhanced pruning and crop management practices. The attaché also reported that there are plans to expand area planted to coffee in the upcoming year by approximately 3%, or 10,000 hectares. The latest data from the All Japan Coffee Association showed that at the end of March, Japan’s green coffee stocks totalled 131,206 tonnes, down slightly from the 132,719 tonnes recorded last month. ​Starbucks reported on its financial results for the second quarter of its financial year this week showing that its net revenues for what it terms its International segment increased by 10%, while its net revenues for its North America segment increased by 7%. Overall, its global comparable store sales increased by 6.2%, primarily driven by a 3.8% increase in comparable transactions and a 2.3% increase in overall transaction values. The company opened 11 net new stores during the period ending with 41,129 stores globally of which 52% were totally company-operated, while 48% were operated by licensed franchisees.

Once again, I cannot get access to any reliable regularly-published data on price differentials, so I have had to rely on sources which may not be entirely accurate or up to date. Physical price differentials are slightly lower this week, although Brazilian 3/4’s for July/December shipment continue to be quoted at minus 10. Honduras HGs are slightly lower at plus 18, while Kenya AB FAQ’s are steady at between plus 47 and plus 50; Colombian UGQ’s, are however lower at plus 37. As a result, I suspect that PNG Y1’s may also be very slightly lower at around plus 7/8. If this is correct, then, it should have been possible for an exporter to have fixed on Friday in New York for July delivery at a price somewhere between 288.30 cents/lb and 297.70 cents/lb.

The stalemate in the Middle-East now looks set to continue for some time to come, causing major disruption to world trade and forcing oil prices up to unprecedented levels. Coffee will not escape its effects, but counteracting this is the fact that the Brazilian harvest will start soon, increasing supplies of readily available coffee So, it can reasonably be anticipated that prices will come under pressure next week, but with luck any downward slide will probably be tempered by wider macro-economic concerns.

Source:

Mick Wheeler, UK.

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