Prices continued their upward march for the first two days of the week adding almost as much as they made the week before, but on Wednesday announcements by President Trump and other American Officials, which suggested that tariffs on all coffee imports would be lifted soon, sent pries crashing downwards. They did stabilise a bit during the last two days of the week but arabica coffee prices finished the week losing 11.85 cents/lb, with the second position (March) closing at 374.00 cents/lb. Robusta coffee prices had an even worse week following news that Typhoon Kalmaegi had had only minimal impact on the coffee growing areas of Vietnam. News that Vietnam’s export figures had risen sharply also added to the negative tone. Over the week robusta coffee prices lost $425/ton (19.25 cents/lb). In the absence of local market distortions, roadside parchment coffee prices in Papua New Guinea next week will probably be between 85 and 90 toea/kg lower than they were last week.
Comments by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that important news would be released in the coming days regarding tariffs on products not grown in the United States, sent prices on both markets tumbling on Wednesday. An announcement on Friday suggested that this relates to imports from Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador. StoneX released its first estimate of next year’s crop this week putting the 2026/27 crop at potentially 70.7 million bags with arabica accounting for 47.2 million bags and robusta (conillon) 23.5 million bags. It has to be said however that all forecast made at this time of the year tend to be wildly inaccurate. The latest data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, CeCafe, showed that in October, the country exported 3.8 million bags of green coffee, a decline of over 20% from the 4.8 million bags exported in the same month last year. Arabica exports in October totalled 3.39 million bags, down 12.9%, while robusta exports were 51.9% lower at 446,664 bags. This has brought cumulative exports for the first ten months of the 2025 calendar year to 30,1 million bags, down 21.5% from the 38.4 million bags exported in the same period last year. Export statistics from Vietnam showed that exports over the first 10 months of the calendar year rose by 13.4% to 21.83 million bags.
I still cannot get access to any reliable regularly-published data on price differentials, so once again, I have had to use sources, the accuracy of which cannot be guaranteed. Once again physical price differentials appear to have been relatively stable. Brazilian 3/4’s, continue at minus 24; as do Honduras HG’s at plus 6, Kenya AB FAQ’s are also unmoved at between plus 35 and plus 40; while Colombian UGQ’s remain at plus 15. I would therefore guess that PNG Y1’s probably are steady at around minus 10, but this just a guess. Thus, had an exporter fixed on Friday in New York for March delivery he may have been able to secure a price somewhere between 352.50 cents/lb and 366.50 cents/lb. The continued volatility reflects the uncertainty felt by the market at the moment with political events determining the direction of travel. The weather in Brazil has been good this week with abundant rain which suggests that the crop may well be higher than this years’, but StoneX;s forecast this week was probably on the optimistic side. Certified stocks continue to decline although the drawdown was smaller than it has been over the last few weeks. Consequently the outlook remains confusing with an equal possibility of movement either way, but on balance I think prices might end the week very close to where they are now.
Source:
Mick Wheeler, UK.