Weekly Market Report – 14 June 2026

The week started off on a quiet note with prices initially falling to new lows, but then rebounding on Thursday and Friday on news that persistent heavy rain in Brazil was not only delaying the harvest but was also having a damaging effect in some areas.  Over the week arabica coffee prices gained 11.30 cents/lb, with the second position (September) closing at 253.40 cents/lb.  However, it was the robusta market which really led the charge upwards gaining $272/ton (12.35 cents/lb) to finish the week at $3,525/ton (September).  In the absence of local market distortions, roadside parchment coffee prices in Papua New Guinea next week will probably between 115 and 120 toea/kg lower than they were last week.

Although the rebound can be attributed to concerns about the weather in Brazil, the market also took note of the falling volume of certified stocks in both markets.  Counteracting this, however, would have been the increase seen in exports from both Brazil and Vietnam.  Data from CeCafe, showed that in May, Brazil exported 2.73 million bags of green coffee, up just over 4% compared to the same month last year.  Arabica exports total 2.1 million bags, down almost 12% on last year, while robusta (conillon) exports totalled 601,756 bags, almost double that which was exported last year in May.  Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported this week that coffee exports for January through to May increased to 15.37 million bags, almost 8% compared to the same period last year. New consumption data released this week through the National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) Specialty Coffee Report showed that 47% of American adults consumed specialty coffee in the past day, matching the record high established in 2025 and maintaining specialty coffee’s lead over traditional coffee consumption in America.  The report showed that 58% of Americans consumed a specialty coffee beverage within the past week, up from 48% in 2021, while past-day specialty consumption remained at a record 47%, continuing to exceed traditional coffee consumption at 42%.  Younger consumers continue to drive much of the specialty market’s expansion, with 69% of Americans aged 25 to 39 reporting specialty coffee consumption during the past week

Once again, I cannot get access to any reliable regularly-published data on price differentials, so I have had to rely on sources which may not be entirely accurate or up to date.  Physical price differentials appear to have been relatively stable this week but that is hardly surprising given that futures prices only rose at the end of the week.  Brazilian 3/4’s remain at minus 18. Honduras HGs continue at plus 16, Kenya AB FAQ’s are unmoved at between plus 40 and plus 45; Colombian UGQ’s are likewise stable at plus 35. It therefore seems likely that PNG Y1’s will also be unmoved plus 4 but this is just a guess.  If this is still correct, then it should have been possible for an exporter to have fixed on Friday in New York for Sept/Oct delivery at a price somewhere between 253.25 cents/lb and 258.35 cents/lb.   The turnaround seen late in the week came as a surprise, but it is still worth noting that prices are lower than they were two weeks ago.  The forecast for the next two weeks suggests that some areas will receive further heavy rain, but it will be patchy and certainly not widespread.  Furthermore, there are no cold fronts predicted for any area in Brazil. The latest commitment of traders’ report suggests that the index funds, continue to increase their short position and although still long, they are so by a very small margin. The outlook is, therefore, for prices to stabilise at the beginning of the week, before continuing their downward path.                                                                                                                                                                                             

Source:
Mick Wheeler, UK.

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