Weekly Market Report – 19 April 2026

As anticipated fundamental concerns forced arabica prices down this week, although the journey downward was far from smooth and not entirely due to fundamentals. Indeed, prices were slowly ebbing downwards throughout the week in response to the prospects of a larger crop in Brazil, but most of the damage was done on Friday when the market fell heavily on news that the Straits of Hormuz would be reopened. Over the week arabica coffee prices lost 11.65 cents/lb, with the second position (July) closing at 284.25 cents/lb. Robusta coffee prices, on the other hand failed to mirror arabica’s price journey with the market more concerned about falling stock levels and therefore followed its own pathway, gaining $24/ton (1.10 cents/lb) to finish the week at $3,263/ton (July). In the absence of local market distortions, roadside parchment coffee prices in Papua New Guinea next week will probably be about 110 toea/kg lower than they were last week.

Early on in the week Cecafé published its preliminary green coffee export data for March showing that exports totalled 2,655,040 bags, 16% higher than in February and 10% higher than in March 2025. Arabica exports accounted for 2,286,909 bags, up 11%, while conillon (robusta) exports totalled 368,131 bags, which was 63% higher than in February and also 63% higher than in March last year. On the other hand, ICO data shows that the volume of exports of all forms of coffee decreased by 5.7% to 11.46 million bags in February 2026 as compared with 12.15 million bags in February 2025. Export volumes expanded in two of the four regions, Africa and Central America, with Asia & Oceania and South America experiencing downturns. NCA data from the Spring 2026 National Coffee Data Trends (NCDT) report show that coffee firmly retains its position as the most popular beverage in the United States, with nearly 195 million American adults drinking coffee each week. Coffee continues to outperform other beverages in past‑day consumption (66%) ahead of bottled water (64%), tea (47%), soft drinks (46%), and juice (26%). The survey confirms that coffee remains primarily an at‑home beverage, a trend that has solidified in recent years.

Once again, I cannot get access to any reliable regularly-published data on price differentials, so I have had to rely on sources which may not be entirely accurate or up to date, indeed this week most sources have not updated their data. On the limited information available it appears that physical price differentials appear to be largely unchanged with Brazilian 3/4’s for July/December shipment at minus 10. Honduras HGs continue at plus 19, as do Kenya AB FAQ’s at between plus 47 and plus 50; Colombian UGQ’s, are also still quoted at plus 40. As a result, I suspect that PNG Y1’s may also be unmoved at around plus 8. If this is correct, then, it should have been possible for an exporter to have fixed on Friday in New York for July delivery at a price somewhere between 291.05 cents/lb and 300.85 cents/lb.

Although there appears to be some confusion as to the exact status of the Straits of Hormuz at the moment, it does appear that some progress is being made towards a resolution of some sort in the Middle East. Peace is still a long way off and there are bound to be all sorts of twists and turns which will spook the market over the next few weeks and possibly even months. But it is calmer and this will allow all markets to return to reflecting the basic fundamental outlook. Unfortunately for coffee this is bearish and prices will therefore probably fall next again next week.

Source:

Mick Wheeler, UK.

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