Weekly Market Report – 26 April 2026

Contrary to expectations both coffee markets made significant gains this week, reflecting concerns over short-term supply difficulties coupled with concerns over the longer-term impact of the war in the Middle-East. Over the week arabica coffee prices recovered most of what they lost last week, rising by 10.65 cents/lb, with the second position (July) closing at 294.90 cents/lb. Robusta coffee prices made a similar advance, gaining $220/ton (10.0 cents/lb) to finish the week at $3,483/ton (July). In the absence of local market distortions, roadside parchment coffee prices in Papua New Guinea next week will probably be about 100 toea/kg higher than they were last week.

The short-term tightness in the market has a number of causes ranging from a stronger Brazilian Real which is discouraging growers and exporters in Brazil from selling at the moment, to downturns in output from a number of quality arabica producers. In this regard it was interesting to note that the latest data from the National Coffee Growers Federation (FNC) confirms a sharp downturn in both production and exports during March. According to the FNC, Colombia’s coffee production in March totalled 754,000 bags, down 29% or 306,000 bags, compared to the same month last year. Somewhat earlier than usual the USDA has started to release estimates made by its agricultural attachés in various coffee producing countries. Two such reports were published this week with the USDA attaché report on Guatemala suggesting that the 2026/27 coffee crop looks set to reach 3.13 million bags, 3.3% higher than the estimate they produced for Guatemala last year. Interestingly and maybe not surprisingly, they attribute this increase to an expansion in the harvested area. The second report was for El Salvador where the attaché has estimated that 2026/27 coffee crop will be around 542,000 bags, down from the 586,000 bags produced last year. On the consumption side it was interesting to note a Deutscher Kaffeeverband report on the German coffee market in 2025 this week, which put total roasted coffee consumption in Germany at around 456,000 tonnes (around 7.6 million bags), 1.5% lower than last year. Per‑capita consumption averaged around 161 litres per person, with noticeable increases in the consumption of whole beans rather than ground and in instant coffee.

Once again, I cannot get access to any reliable regularly-published data on price differentials, so I have had to rely on sources which may not be entirely accurate or up to date. Physical price differentials appear to be largely unchanged with Brazilian 3/4’s for July/December shipment continuing at minus 10. Honduras HGs remain at plus 19, as do Kenya AB FAQ’s at between plus 47 and plus 50; Colombian UGQ’s, are also still quoted at plus 40. As a result, I suspect that PNG Y1’s may also be unmoved at around plus 8. If this is correct, then, it should have been possible for an exporter to have fixed on Friday in New York for July delivery at a price somewhere between 302.10 cents/lb and 314.25 cents/lb.

Whilst short-term factors have dominated the market this week, the scope for continued upward movement looks limited although, as always, never out of the question. StoneX predicted this week that global production could reach 182.5 million bags this crop year with global consumption estimated at 172.5 million bags. Such a surplus would go a long way to replenishing diminished global stocks. However, the short-term factors cannot be ignored and thus while all the evidence suggests that prices should fall next week, they might not.

Source:

Mick Wheeler, UK.

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